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利用花生锈病多年的病害系统调查数据,拟合Weibull方程,计算参数a、b、c。多元回归分析表明,花生锈病流行曲线的Weibull方程的位置参数a和标度参数b可以通过在病害流行初期病情达0.5,1,5,10％的时间或其两点间的时间间距求得,而形状参数c也可以通过上述四点和所求得的a,b参数联合求得。 利用所得的a、b、c参数可按Weibull方程对病害流行全过程预测,若在流行期间持续调查病情,重新估计c值,可提高预测准确度。利用1983年春花生两套数据对本法进行检验。在各210次检验中,平均准确度为89和84％。
Using pest rust disease disease system for many years to investigate the data, fit Weibull equation, calculate the parameters a, b, c. Multivariate regression analysis showed that the position parameter a and the scale parameter b of the Weibull equation of the peanut rust epidemic curve can be obtained through the time interval of 0.5, 1, 5, or 10% of the initial disease prevalence or the time interval between the two points, The shape parameter c can also be obtained by combining the above four points with the obtained a, b parameters. Using the obtained parameters of a, b and c, we can predict the whole process of disease epidemic according to the Weibull equation. If the condition is continuously investigated and the c value is re-estimated during the epidemic period, the prediction accuracy can be improved. The 1983 Spring Peanut two sets of data to test the law. In each of the 210 tests, the average accuracy was 89 and 84%.