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大分流(The Great Divergence)一直是经济史研究热点。本文主要包括三个部分。首先,可以采用购买力平价(Purchasing Power Paris,PPP)、实际工资、身高、年龄堆积(Age-heaping)等指标,比较长历史周期内的国际生活水平,探寻大分流的起点。其次,从要素价格角度比较了国际生产率,认为在东西方大分流前夕,中西方在实际工资和利息上的差异可能是导致了这种大分流现象的主要因素。最后,分析了中国古代政治制度及其对长期经济路径的影响,回答了大分流前夕工资和利息差异的原因。三部分不仅构成了研究大分流的完整体系,而且涵盖了丰富的量化历史研究方法。
The Great Divergence has always been a hot topic in economic history. This article mainly includes three parts. First, we can use indicators such as Purchasing Power Paris (PPP), real wages, height and age-heaping to compare the long-term international living standards and explore the starting point for the diversion. Second, comparing the international productivity from the perspective of factor prices, we think that the difference between the real wage and interest between China and the West may be the main factor leading to this major diversion on the eve of the East-West divide. Finally, it analyzes the ancient Chinese political system and its impact on the long-term economic route, and answers the reasons for the differences in salary and interest on the eve of the great diversion. The three parts not only constitute a complete system for studying the diversion but also contain a wealth of quantitative historical research methods.