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通过对山东省碳排放量进行核算,并在Kaya恒等式基础上,将山东省生产部门碳排放分解为经济发展、产业结构、能源强度、能源消费结构4个驱动因素,并采用对数平均迪氏分解法对山东省2000—2009年碳减排工作成效进行定量分析。结果表明:除能源强度的变动对碳排放起负向驱动作用外,经济发展、产业结构、能源消费结构的变动均对碳排放起正向驱动作用,且经济发展是山东省碳排放的主要促进因素。最后,提高能源效率、降低能源强度是目前山东省碳减排工作的重点。
On the basis of Kaya identity, carbon emissions in Shandong province are decomposed into four driving forces of economic development, industrial structure, energy intensity and energy consumption structure. The logarithmic average Di Decomposition method to quantify the effect of carbon emission reduction in Shandong Province from 2000 to 2009. The results show that except for the change of energy intensity, which plays a negative role in driving carbon emissions, the changes of economic development, industrial structure and energy consumption structure all play a positive role in driving carbon emissions. And the economic development is the major promotion of carbon emission in Shandong Province factor. Finally, to improve energy efficiency and reduce energy intensity is the focus of carbon emission reduction in Shandong Province.