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本文首先论述了中国经济在几十年高速增长中是以螺旋上升态势运行的。而现今中国由于房地产业调整引起19个行业产能过剩,可能会在较长时间内发挥作用。因此,本文认为通缩、有效需求不足将是一种常态,而原材料、能源上调价格引起的成本推进型部分商品涨价,也无法改变通缩为主的态势。另外,这种局部涨价是不能由银行加息等紧缩性货币政策来修正。相反,由于人民币汇率机制改革还会加重通缩,并诱发极宽松的货币政策。
This article begins with a discussion of the spiraling upward trend in China’s economy during decades of rapid growth. Nowadays, overcapacity in 19 industries caused by real estate adjustment in China may play a role for a long time. Therefore, this article believes that deflation, the effective demand will be a normal state, and raw materials, energy prices caused by cost-push some of the commodity prices, it can not change the trend of deflation-based. In addition, such local price hikes can not be corrected by the tight monetary policy such as bank hikes. On the contrary, the reform of the RMB exchange rate mechanism will aggravate deflation and trigger a very loose monetary policy.