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目的分析高州市传染病自动预警信息响应与其在预测疾病暴发中的效果,为优化传染病自动预警系统提供依据。方法用描述流行病学方法对高州市的传染病自动预警信息进行分析。结果 2008—2013年高州市共收到预警信号397条,响应率为100%,响应时间中位数为1.86 h(P25~P75:0.51~9.44)。涉及病种17种,排在前3位的依次为麻疹、手足口病、流行性腮腺炎;预警信号逐年增多,信号每年主要集中在6、7月份;疑似事件数为18起,经调查确定9起为暴发/流行,阳性预测值为2.27%;现场调查均在预警信号发出之前。结论阳性预测值低,应根据各地区常见病发病实际和突发公共卫生事件相关规定,确定合适预警阈值,或只针对当地罕见病和新发传染病发出预警。
Objective To analyze the automatic warning information response of communicable diseases in Gaozhou and its effect in predicting disease outbreaks, so as to provide the basis for optimizing the automatic early warning system of infectious diseases. Methods Descriptive epidemiological methods were used to analyze the automatic warning information of infectious diseases in Gaozhou. Results A total of 397 early warning signals were received in Gaozhou during 2008-2013. The response rate was 100%. The median response time was 1.86 h (P25 ~ P75: 0.51 ~ 9.44). 17 kinds of diseases were involved, followed by the first three were measles, hand-foot-mouth disease and mumps. The number of early-warning signals increased year by year. The signal mainly concentrated in June and July each year. The number of suspected events was 18. After investigation, 9 outbreaks / epidemic, the positive predictive value of 2.27%; field surveys are in the early warning signal is issued. Conclusions The positive predictive value is low. According to the actual conditions of common diseases in various regions and the relevant public health emergencies, the appropriate early warning thresholds should be determined, or only the local rare diseases and new infectious diseases should be issued early warning.