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本文从历史发展角度动态地考察了由投资和消费引发CO2排放的变化规律,提出了碳排放中的消费型排放、建设型排放和消费建设比的概念,利用环境投入产出分析模型(EE-IOA)估计了处于不同工业化发展阶段的32个国家86组数据的消费型排放和建设型排放,得到了消费建设比在工业化过程中(包括后工业化时期)的演变规律。实证结果表明:随着工业化水平的提高,消费建设比呈上升趋势;应根据消费型排放和建设型排放的减排潜力,科学制定减排目标,更加注重引导消费者行为向绿色消费转变、依靠消费者力量促进企业节能减排。本研究对正确评价不同工业化发展阶段国家的排放水平和减排潜力,科学制定减排政策和目标具有重要意义。
This paper examines the changing law of CO2 emissions caused by investment and consumption dynamically from the perspective of historical development and puts forward the concept of consumption-type emissions, construction-type emissions and consumption-construction ratio in carbon emissions. By using the model of environmental input-output analysis (EE- IOA) estimates the consumption-based and construction-based emissions of 86 data sets in 32 countries in different stages of industrialization and obtains the evolution of consumption-to-consumption ratio in the process of industrialization (including post-industrialization). Empirical results show that: with the improvement of industrialization, the ratio of consumption construction is on the rise; the target of emission reduction should be formulated scientifically based on the emission reduction potential of consumer-based and construction-based emissions, more attention should be paid to directing changes in consumer behavior to green consumption, Consumer power to promote energy-saving emission reduction. This study is of great significance to correctly evaluate the emission levels and emission reduction potential of countries in different stages of industrialization and scientifically formulate emission reduction policies and targets.