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火灾事故的发生具有随机性、不确定性。根据1997—2006年全国农村火灾情况的统计数据,运用灰色预测理论,构建符合精度要求的GM(1,1)预测模型,结合精度检验、残差修正等手段,预测了2007—2010年农村火灾发生起数、直接经济损失、火灾受伤人数、火灾死亡人数。预测结果显示,农村火灾起数呈上升趋势,由火灾造成的直接经济损失和伤亡人数均呈波动性下降趋势,但是损失依然巨大。
The occurrence of a fire accident is random and uncertain. According to the statistical data of rural fires in China from 1997 to 2006, the gray forecasting theory is applied to build the GM (1,1) forecasting model that meets the precision requirements. The accuracy of the forecasting model for rural fires in 2007-2010 The number of occurrences, direct economic losses, the number of fire injuries, the number of fire deaths. The forecast results show that the number of fires in rural areas is on the rise, and the direct economic losses and casualties caused by fires have shown a downward trend of volatility, but the losses are still huge.