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针对传统可靠度及坝体安全系数计算方法存在的两个方面的不足:①实际工程中不可能给出设计变量精确的均值,而且这些均值在很大程度上受到许多客观因素或人为作用的影响,这些影响程度具有较大的模糊性;②传统的可靠度理论以Z=0作为度量坝体是否失效的界限,在零点两侧,结构的失效和安全状态是以突变形式转化的,但坝体从安全到破坏很难用明确界限划分,在可靠与失效之间有一个中间过渡状态存在,是一个模糊范围。在解决以上两个问题的基础之上,首次将模糊可靠度理论应用到尾矿坝的稳定性研究中,既考虑尾矿坝破坏事件的模糊性,又考虑主要变量和参数的模糊性,将模糊性和随机性相结合,研究尾矿坝工程的模糊随机可靠度分析方法。工程实例计算表明:计算结果与实际情况吻合良好,较传统坝体安全系数计算方法更加科学合理,更能反映尾矿坝的真实状况,为尾矿坝稳定性的计算提供了一条新途径。
In view of the shortcomings of the traditional reliability and the calculation method of the dam safety coefficient, ①the exact mean of the design variables can not be given in the actual project, and these averages are greatly influenced by many objective factors or man-made effects , And the degree of influence has greater fuzziness. ② The traditional reliability theory takes Z = 0 as the limit to determine whether a dam is failed. On both sides of the zero point, the structural failure and safety status are transformed in a mutated form, but the dam From security to destruction is difficult to use a clear distinction between the boundaries of reliability and failure there is an intermediate transition between the existence of a fuzzy range. Based on the above two problems, the fuzzy reliability theory is applied to the stability research of tailing dam for the first time, not only considering the vagueness of tailing dam damage events, but also considering the ambiguity of the main variables and parameters, Fuzziness and randomness, this paper studies the fuzzy random reliability analysis method of tailings dam project. The calculation of engineering example shows that the calculated result is in good agreement with the actual situation, which is more scientific and reasonable than the traditional calculation method of safety coefficient of dam, which can better reflect the real condition of tailings dam and provide a new way to calculate the stability of tailings dam.