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一、引言 本文利用马尔柯夫链的基本思想来研究发震地区的迁移问题。根据历史资料,计算出一重、二重及小地区的转移概率,然后以这三个因素作为预报因子和作出预报测度,并讨论了我国中部南北带五级以上地震以及全国六级以上地震的迁移及预报方法。 先简单介绍一下随机转移的概念。设有一个随机地(即偶然性地)运动的质点A,它每经过一单位时间就作一次随机的转移。它所可能处的状态(或称地区)假定为1,2,…,m。
I. INTRODUCTION In this paper, the basic idea of Markov chain is used to study the problem of migration in the seismogenic area. Based on the historical data, the probability of transition in one, two and small regions is calculated. Then, these three factors are used as predictors and predictors. And the migration of more than five earthquakes in the central north-south belt and the earthquakes of more than six magnitude in China are discussed And forecast method. First briefly introduce the concept of random transfer. There is a random (ie, by chance) movement of particle A, which makes a random transition every unit time. The state (or area) it may assume is 1, 2, ..., m.