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“特朗普经济学”和“里根经济学”在宏观背景、理论支撑、政策措施等方面存在一定的共性,因此可以从里根时期美国政府金融政策的选择及其效果来推测特朗普任期内可能采取的金融监管、财政和货币政策,以及可能的政策效果。特朗普执政后的政策选择应该会至少分为两个较大的阶段:2017年至2018年的总体紧缩阶段和2018年以后的相对宽松阶段。前一阶段美股、美债市场预计会承受压力,美元指数区间震荡,大宗商品或出现阶段性机会;后一阶段美股、美债市场面临一定机会,美元指数预计会回调,大宗商品长期走势则取决于全球经济和美国经济复苏,以及特朗普财政刺激政策的力度。
There is a certain commonalities between the “Trump Economics” and “Reagan Economics” in terms of macroeconomic background, theoretical support and policy measures, so we can infer from the choice and effectiveness of the U.S. government’s financial policies in the Reagan era Possible financial regulation, fiscal and monetary policies, and possible policy effects during the term of the LMP. Trump’s policy choices after coming into power should be broken down into at least two larger stages: the overall austerity period from 2017 to 2018 and the relatively accommodative phase beyond 2018. The previous stage of the US stock market, the US debt market is expected to be under pressure, the dollar index range turbulence, commodities or there are stage opportunities; the latter stage of US stocks, the United States debt market is facing some opportunities, the dollar index is expected to callback, the long-term trend is dependent on commodities In the global economy and the United States economic recovery, as well as Trump fiscal stimulus efforts.