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一代粘虫发生程度预测,常年用糖醋盆诱蛾、草把诱卵资料,结合气候因子分析发报,易出现误差。为了提高测报的准确性,1988年始将历年蛾、卵资料分析发现,且有蛾、卵主峰出现早,气温低,无效卵多,发生量小;反之则大。并在卵高峰后麦田查卵校正,采用回归法,通过对1973～1989年资料分析筛选出主高峰5天的单盆雌蛾量(x_1)、4月1～15日百把总卵粒数(x_2)、4月下旬雨日数(x_3)、4月下旬温雨系数(x_4)、4个极显著的相关因子,预测发生程度,与实测达到相符水平。
A generation of armyworms occurred in the degree of prediction, perennial sweet and sour pots with moths, the grass to induce eggs, combined with climate factor analysis report, prone to error. In order to improve the accuracy of the report, the data of moths and eggs from 1988 to the beginning of the year were analyzed. It was found that moths and eggs had early peak, low temperature and invalid egg, and the occurrence was small; on the contrary, they were large. The results showed that the number of single-moth female moths (x_1) was the main peak for five days after April 1973, and the number of total eggs per moth from April 1 to April 15 (x_2), the number of rainy days in late April (x_3), the temperature and humidity coefficient (x_4) in late April, and the four extremely significant correlation factors. The predicted degree of occurrence was consistent with the measured value.