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2005年到2007年,中国的股市在震荡中冲向了6000点的高峰,在央行5次加息、10次提高存款准备金率的阻击下仍然一路凯歌,永往直前。而2008以来年股市却一泻千里,直捣3000点。与此同时,人民币持续升值突破了7点大关,加之连续几年的双顺差带来了持续的高额外汇储备增长。国际收支平衡表中各项加减的显著矛盾和国内资产市场的大起大落的种种迹象表明:大量“国际热钱”已经涌入中国。那么证据何在,热钱效用的影响力有多大?它们又会带给未来的中国什么?
From 2005 to 2007, China’s stock market jumped to a peak of 6,000 points in turmoil. With the central bank’s 5 interest rate hikes and the 10-time increase of the deposit reserve ratio, it is still triumphant and forever moving forward. However, the stock market has plummeted since 2008, plunge 3000 points. At the same time, the continuous appreciation of the renminbi exceeded the 7-point mark, and the double surplus for several consecutive years brought sustained high growth in foreign exchange reserves. The signs of significant contradictions in the balance of payments deficit and the ups and downs of the domestic asset markets show that a large number of “international hot money” have poured into China. So what is the evidence and how much impact the utility of hot money will have? What will they bring to China in the future?