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目的了解徐州市2011年传染病自动预警系统运行情况。方法对2011-01-01/12-31预警系统产生的预警信号数、预警信号响应率和响应时间、预警信号初步核实方式及响应结果进行描述性分析。结果 2011年徐州市预警系统中共产生1533条预警信号,信号响应率为100%。其中,固定阈值预警方法产生763条预警信号,涉及7种传染病,平均响应时间为1.10 h,通过初步核实、现场调查与实验室检测,排除609条预警信号,最终确认2起突发公共卫生事件相关信息;移动百分位数法共产生770条预警信号,涉及9种传染病,平均响应时间1.67 h,全市平均每县每周约产生预警信号1.48条,其中2条信号(0.26%)经初步核实后判断为疑似事件,经过进一步现场调查最终确认为突发公共卫生事件。结论预警系统中预警信号响应率和响应及时性较高,预警系统能够辅助疾病预防控制机构早期发现可能的传染病暴发。
Objective To understand the operation of automatic warning system for infectious diseases in 2011 in Xuzhou. Methods Descriptive analysis was made on the number of early warning signals, the response rate and response time of early warning signals, the preliminary verification methods of early warning signals and the response results of the early warning system from January 1 to December 31, 2011. Results In 2011, a total of 1533 warning signals were generated in Xuzhou Early Warning System, and the signal response rate was 100%. Among them, 763 prewarning signals were generated by fixed threshold early warning method and 7 kinds of infectious diseases were involved. The average response time was 1.10 h. After preliminary verification, field investigation and laboratory tests, 609 early warning signals were excluded, and finally 2 public health emergencies The mobile percentile method generated a total of 770 early warning signals involving 9 kinds of infectious diseases with an average response time of 1.67 h. The average number of warning signals in each county in the county was 1.48, of which 2 signals (0.26% After the preliminary verification, it is judged as a suspected incident, and after further site investigation, it is finally confirmed as a public health emergency. Conclusion The response rate and response timeliness of early warning signal in early warning system is high, and early warning system can assist CDC in early detection of possible outbreak of infectious disease.