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本文运用stata11软件,基于2000—2014年珠三角9个城市的面板数据,建立面板VAR模型,通过脉冲响应函数考察房地产与地区经济之间的互动关系。研究表明:房地产投资完成额的提高对地区生产总值具有显著的促进作用,而地区生产总值的提高对房地产投资完成额同样具有显著的促进作用。商品房销售面积的提高对地区生产总值有一定的抑制作用,但抑制作用极为有限,而地区生产总值的提高会带动商品房销售面积的增长。商品房销售价格的提高对地区生产总值有显著的抑制作用,而地区生产总值的增长却会显著提高商品房的销售价格。
Based on the panel data of 9 cities in Pearl River Delta from 2000 to 2014, this paper establishes a panel VAR model using stata11 software and investigates the interaction between real estate and regional economy through impulse response function. The research shows that the increase of the completion of real estate investment has a significant promoting effect on the GDP, while the increase of regional GDP also has a significant promotion effect on the completion of real estate investment. The increase of the sales area of commercial buildings has a certain restraining effect on the GDP, but the restraining effect is extremely limited. However, the increase of the GDP will lead to the increase of the sales area of commercial buildings. The increase of the sales price of commercial housing has a significant inhibitory effect on the GDP, while the growth of the GDP will significantly increase the sales price of commercial housing.