论文部分内容阅读
为预测气候变化和土地利用变化条件下清江渔峡口站以上清江流域未来径流变化情况,首先建立SWAT模型,采用CMIP5三种模式下2016~2100年月降水情景数据,经降尺度后预测月径流。结果表明,未来年内最大月降水和月径流出现时间提前1~2个月,经Mann-Kendall(M-K)检验,降水和径流在2016~2100年间均呈整体增强趋势,但在2016~2035年内的降水和径流量均较历史时期(1990~1999年)低。在空间优化配置土地利用情景下的平均年径流量相对基准期年径流的变幅较现有土地利用情况下有所减小。研究成果对长江防洪、梯级电站调度工作有积极意义。
In order to predict the future runoff changes in the Qingjiang River basin above the Yuxiakou Station under the conditions of climate change and land use change, a SWAT model was first established and monthly precipitation scenarios from 2016 to 2100 under the three CMIP5 models were used to predict monthly runoff . The results show that the maximum monthly precipitation and monthly runoff will occur 1 to 2 months ahead of schedule in the next year. According to the Mann-Kendall (MK) test, precipitation and runoff all show an overall increasing trend between 2016 and 2100, but in 2016-2035 Precipitation and runoff were lower than historical periods (1990-1999). The average annual runoff under the optimal spatial allocation of land use has a decrease from the current land use in the base period. The research results have positive significance for the flood control and cascade hydropower stations in the Yangtze River.