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针对航空产品工程变更不易预测传播路径的问题,本文利用信息论和统计学的有关原理,提出了一套基于经验的工程变更传播路径预测方法。利用熵和互信息的概念,从海量经验数据中获取在预测过程中起到重要作用的参数;以其为样本空间,提出了一种从语义和变更影响两个角度计算变更参数相似度的算法;基于贝叶斯公式,分析了多因素情况下,相关参数的被影响概率,以此作为判断变更路径的依据;最后,以某型号航空涡轮叶盘为例对本文方法进行了验证,结果表明本文方法具有一定的准确度和优越性。
Aiming at the problem that the change of aeronautical product engineering is not easy to predict the propagation path, this paper proposes a set of empirically-based engineering change propagation path forecasting method based on the theory of information theory and statistics. Using the concept of entropy and mutual information, the parameters that play an important role in the forecasting process are obtained from the vast amount of empirical data. With the sample space, an algorithm for calculating the similarity of changing parameters from the perspective of semantic and change is proposed Based on the Bayesian formula, the influence probability of the related parameters under multi-factors is analyzed, which can be used as the basis for judging the change path. Finally, the method of this paper is validated by aero turbine disc, and the result shows This method has a certain accuracy and superiority.