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根据中上新世模拟比较计划(PlioMIP)试验设计方案,利用通用气候系统模式(CCSM4)低分辨率版本就该时期是否存在“永久厄尔尼诺”状态给予了数值模拟研究。结果表明,相对于工业革命前期,中上新世海洋表面温度(SST)在赤道太平洋地区东部比西部增温显著,导致赤道太平洋地区东西方向上的SST梯度减弱;然而,模拟的中上新世热带太平洋SST仍然以厄尔尼诺/南方涛动(ENSO)循环为主,且ENSO循环并未减弱,换言之,试验结果不支持中上新世存在“永久厄尔尼诺”状态。
Based on the PlioMIP experimental design, a numerical simulation study was conducted using the low-resolution versions of the Common Climate System Model (CCSM4) for the presence of “permanent El Niño” for that period. The results show that, compared with the early part of the Industrial Revolution, the mid-Pliocene ocean surface temperature (SST) significantly increased in the eastern part of the equatorial Pacific over the western part, resulting in a weaker SST gradient in the east-west direction of the equatorial Pacific. However, the simulated mid- The tropical Pacific SST is still dominated by the El Niño / Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, and the ENSO cycle does not diminish. In other words, the test results do not support the existence of the “permanent El Niño” condition in the mid-Pliocene.