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宏观经济方面,财政政策在引导经济方面有着不可低估的作用,尤其在促进经济健康发展方面。本文主要关注云南省,采用时间数据(1981-2014年)建立VECM(向量误差修正模型)衡量云南省地方财政支出和私人投资之间的长期关系。通过VECM模型的协整方程回归,我们发现:长期来说,云南省地方财政支出对私人投资有正向作用,这与国家财政支出对私人投资的影响是一致的,地方生产总值与私人投资之间的关系为正向关系,而协整方程的回归结果表明,居民消费支出从长期看对私人投资的正向拉动作用较大,但是云南省地方税收却挤出了私人投资。
In macroeconomic terms, fiscal policy plays an important role in guiding the economy, especially in promoting healthy economic development. This paper mainly focuses on Yunnan Province and uses the time data (1981-2014) to establish a VECM (Vector Error Correction Model) to measure the long-term relationship between local fiscal expenditure and private investment in Yunnan Province. Through the regression of the cointegration equation of the VECM model, we find that in the long run, local fiscal expenditure in Yunnan Province has a positive effect on private investment, which is consistent with the impact of national fiscal expenditure on private investment. The ratio of local GDP to private investment However, the regression results of the cointegration equation show that the consumer spending in the long term has a positive effect on the positive effect of private investment, but the local tax revenue in Yunnan province has squeezed out private investment.