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笔者选择世界主要发达国家和新兴市场国家(地区)为研究对象,利用门限面板模型分析不同金融市场发展程度上的外汇储备对经济增长的影响。研究结果表明:对于全样本国家(地区)而言,金融市场在一定发展程度上的外汇储备对经济增长有促进作用,但超过一定水平之后则有负面影响;对于新兴市场国家(地区)而言,仅在金融市场发展较低水平上的外汇储备对经济增长有促进作用;对于发达国家而言,金融市场发展水平越高则外汇储备对经济增长越具有积极影响。另外,东南亚金融危机对新兴市场国家(地区)的影响要高于发达国家,但2008年全球金融危机则主要影响发达国家。
The author chooses the world’s major developed countries and emerging market countries (regions) as the research object, using the threshold panel model to analyze the impact of foreign exchange reserves on economic growth in different levels of financial market development. The results show that: for the whole sample countries (regions), the financial markets in a certain extent, the extent of the development of foreign exchange reserves to promote economic growth, but more than a certain level of negative impact; for emerging market countries (regions) , Foreign exchange reserves at a relatively low level in financial markets have a positive effect on economic growth. For developed countries, the higher the level of financial market development, the more positive the impact of foreign exchange reserves on economic growth. In addition, the impact of the financial crisis in Southeast Asia on emerging market countries (regions) than developed countries, but the 2008 global financial crisis mainly affects the developed countries.