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以四川省汶川县为典型研究区,采用GIS技术与层次分析法、模糊数学等数学模型相结合的方法,进行了泥石流敏感性评价研究。选取流域高差、沟壑密度、沟道坡度、主沟纵比降、崩滑体核密度强度、年最大日降雨量等6个指标作为评价因子,构建了泥石流敏感性评价指标体系。采用模糊综合评判法对汶川县160条泥石流的敏感性进行了评价,利用ARCGIS空间分析功能求出了每个因子对上一级的隶属度图层。最后,根据最大隶属度原则,选取每个流域上泥石流的敏感性隶属度的最大值作为该流域单元泥石流的敏感性等级。检验分析表明,评价的泥石流敏感性空间分布与实际调查结果较为吻合。
Taking Wenchuan County of Sichuan Province as a typical research area, the method of combining GIS with AHP and fuzzy mathematics was used to evaluate the sensitivity of debris flow. Six indexes, including basin height difference, gully density, channel slope, vertical and vertical ratio of main channel, nuclear density intensity of collapse and slip body, and annual maximum daily rainfall, were selected as evaluation factors to establish the evaluation index system of debris flow sensitivity. The sensitivity of 160 debris flows in Wenchuan County was evaluated by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. The membership layer of each factor to the upper level was obtained by using the spatial analysis function of ARCGIS. Finally, according to the principle of maximum degree of membership, the maximum value of the membership degree of debris flow in each basin is chosen as the sensitivity level of debris flow in the basin. The test analysis shows that the spatial distribution of the evaluation of debris flow sensitivity is in good agreement with the actual survey results.