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新科技发展迅猛,科技作为第一生产力的地位已越来越突出。国家竞争抑或企业竞争,根本上也是科技的竞争和创新力的竞争。对技术发展做出战略性预见和规划对于政府和企业来说都已成为经常性的工作,极需一种常规化和体制化的方法和工作流程。预测市场作为近年来新兴的预测工具,已被众多领域的应用实例证明了其预测的准确性。本文创造性地尝试将预测市场应用于技术预见中。文章分析了现有技术预见方法的优缺点,归纳总结出技术预见的一般流程,结合预测市场机理和对应用实例的总结,论证了预测市场可以成为一种常规化和体制化的技术预见工具,并尝试建立预测市场用于技术预见的工作流程。
The rapid development of new science and technology, science and technology as the primary productive force has become increasingly prominent. National competition or business competition, fundamentally, is also the competition of science and technology and innovation. Strategic foresight and planning for technology development has become a regular activity for both government and enterprises, requiring a very routine and institutional approach and workflow. Forecasting market, as a new forecasting tool in recent years, has been proved by its application examples in many fields to forecast its accuracy. This article creatively tries to apply the forecasting market to technical foresight. The paper analyzes the advantages and disadvantages of the foreseeable methods in the prior art, generalizes the general flow of the forecasted technologies, and combines the forecasting market mechanism and the application examples to demonstrate that the forecasting market can become a routine and institutionalized technology forecaster, And try to establish a workflow that predicts the market for technical foresight.