论文部分内容阅读
对发达国家经济的影响据世界银行国际经济部估计,如果海湾发生大规模战争,油价将涨到每桶65美元,酿成严重的石油危机,发达国家经济将遭到灾难性的打击。根据第一次和第二次石油危机的历史经验,届时,发达国家将会遇到5个方面问题:(1)社会再生产过程矛盾激化,经济衰退加速到来;(2)与石油有关的各类商品价格上涨,通货膨涨加剧;(3)生产结构、消费结构、工艺选择、资金投向发生变化;(4)国际收支严重失衡,进口石油的国家贸易收支大量逆差,而出口国大量顺差,引起石油美元回流问题;(5)国际债务问题加剧,发达国家金融市场将激烈动荡。
Impact on the Economy of Developed Countries According to estimates of the World Economic Affairs Department of the World Bank, if a large-scale war in the Gulf takes place, oil prices will rise to 65 U.S. dollars per barrel, causing a serious oil crisis and the economy of the developed countries will be catastrophic. According to the historical experience of the first and second oil crises, the developed countries will encounter five problems by then: (1) the intensification of the contradictions in social reproduction and the acceleration of the economic downturn; and (2) various types of petroleum-related (3) the structure of production, consumption structure, process choice and capital investment have changed; (4) the balance of payments in the world has become seriously unbalanced, the trade balance of the country importing oil has suffered a large deficit, while the large surplus of exporting countries , Causing oil dollar backflow problem; (5) the issue of international debt intensified, developed countries will be fierce turmoil in financial markets.