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财政预算用于指导和约束财政资金的使用和配置,科学制定预算对于提高财政资金使用效率,促进社会公平至关重要。预算完成度是衡量预算编制水平的一项关键指标,包括预算收入完成度和预算支出完成度两部分,与经济社会发展密切相关。运用1994-2013年全国公共财政预算相关数据,以及与经济社会发展水平密切相关的三项指标进行分析,构建SVAR模型,得出结论:预算完成度对经济社会发展有直接影响,迅速且持久,短时间内影响更加明显。因此,科学编制预算,维持高水平的预算完成度有利于经济社会稳定发展。
The budget is used to guide and restrict the use and allocation of fiscal funds. Scientifically setting the budget is very important for improving the efficiency of the use of fiscal funds and promoting social fairness. The degree of completion of the budget is a key measure of the level of budget preparation, including the completion of the budget revenue and the completion of the budget expenditure, which are closely related to the economic and social development. Based on the national public budget data from 1994 to 2013 and the three indicators closely related to the level of economic and social development, this paper constructs the SVAR model and concludes that the budgetary completion has a direct, rapid and long-term impact on economic and social development. Short-term impact is more obvious. Therefore, to draw up a scientific budget and maintain a high level of budget completion will be conducive to the steady economic and social development.