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测震仪器过去已经在泰国—老挝—缅甸交界地区记录到大量地震。然而大部分这些地震的震中位置与地表形态特征显示出孕震断层的位置不相吻合。因此本地震危险性研究集中在对地震记录的统计评估。根据完整的地震目录研究了频度―震级分布关系中a值和b值的空间分布。对从a值和b值推导可能最大震级地震的分析表明,缅甸孟板北部和老挝北宾—琅勃拉邦地区具有年发生mb为4.0~5.0地震和50年内发生mb为7.0地震的可能。此外,对于mb在4.0~7.0之间的地震,计算表明孟板北部地区的复发周期短(即1~500年),而在泰国清迈东部地区显示长达5 000年的较长复发周期。对于地震预测,三个测试子数据集表明低b值地区与该地区随后大地震的发生之间有良好的相关性。因此,基于这个有效条件和现有数据,未来地震可能发生在孟板北部和北宾—琅勃拉邦水坝地区。
Seismometric instruments have been recorded in the past in Thailand - Laos - Burma junction area recorded a large number of earthquakes. However, the epicentral location of most of these earthquakes does not coincide with the features of the earth’s surface that show the location of the seismogenic fault. Therefore, the study on the risk of earthquakes concentrates on the statistical evaluation of earthquake records. According to the complete earthquake catalog, the spatial distribution of a value and b value in frequency-magnitude distribution is studied. An analysis of the possible maximum magnitude earthquakes derived from the a and b values shows that there is a possibility that the annual mb of 4.0-5.0 earthquakes occur in the northern Mengban-Luang Prabang region of Myanmar and the Laibin-Luang Prabang region of Myanmar and the 7.0 mb earthquake occurred in 50 years. In addition, for earthquakes with mb between 4.0 and 7.0, the calculations show that the northern part of Mengban has a short recurrence (ie 1-500 years) and a long recurrence of up to 5000 years in the eastern region of Chiang Mai, Thailand. For earthquake prediction, the three test sub-datasets show a good correlation between low b-value regions and the subsequent occurrence of major earthquakes in the region. Therefore, based on this effective condition and available data, future earthquakes may occur in the north of Mengban and in the Beibin-Luang Prabang Dam area.