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水资源短缺日益成为北京市城市发展的严重制约因素,水资源可持续利用已成为北京市的战略目标。采用基于统计规律的预测方法,对北京市的工业和生活需水建立了多种预测模型,并采用样本年和检验年分开的方法,对各模型的模拟精度和预测精度进行综合比较,选取综合精度较高的模型对北京市2014年的城市用水进行预测,最后对多种模型的预测结果进行优选和集成。采用的方法将社会经济和用水看作一个整体,能较好地总结历史规律,预测未来趋势,取得了较好的预测效果。
Water scarcity is increasingly becoming a serious constraint on urban development in Beijing. The sustainable use of water resources has become a strategic target of Beijing. Based on the statistical rule-based forecasting method, a variety of forecasting models are set up for the industrial and domestic water demand in Beijing. The methods of sample year and test year are used to make a comprehensive comparison between the simulation accuracy and prediction accuracy of each model. The model with higher accuracy predicts the urban water use in Beijing in 2014, and finally optimizes and integrates the prediction results of various models. The method adopted considers the social economy and water as a whole, can better summarize the law of history, predict future trends and achieve better forecasting results.