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本文利用非预期性经济波动分解模型,对中国2008～2009年季度经济增长率变动来源进行分解发现:全球金融危机通过外部直接冲击和国内二级传导两条途径,引起国内区域经济的非稳定性变化,并呈现出从东向西顺序延迟和程度递减的特点;从各地区经济下滑产生的来源看,国内区域间金融危机二级传导效应并不显著,东部地区主要源于国际外部直接冲击的影响,而中西部地区则更多源于区域内金融危机二级传导效应以及自身抗击外在经济冲击影响能力不足。
In this paper, we use the unanticipated economic volatility decomposition model to decompose the sources of quarterly economic growth in China from 2008 to 2009 and find that the global financial crisis has caused the instability of the domestic regional economy through direct external shocks and domestic secondary transmission The order of delay and degree of decline from east to west are showing. According to the sources of the economic downturn in all regions, the secondary transmission effect of the financial crisis in the interregional regions is not significant. The eastern region is mainly due to the direct external and international impact While the central and western regions originated more from secondary conductive effects of the financial crisis in the region and their own ability to combat external economic shocks.