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利用1971—2010年天山北坡经济带棉区11个代表站的气象资料,采用气候倾向率、t-检验和IDW插值方法,分析了棉区3月下旬至4月下旬各旬平均气温和≥12℃初日的时空变化对棉花播期的影响.结果表明:研究期间,天山北坡经济带3月下旬、4月上、中、下旬平均气温分别以0.8、0.5、0.1和0.5℃·(10 a)-1的倾向率呈增加趋势,但是≥12℃初日却以-0.5 d·(10 a)-1的倾向率呈提前趋势.各气象要素均在20世纪90年代发生突变,突变年后3月下旬、4月上、中、下旬平均气温依次增加2.5、1.9、1.1和1.5℃,分别达到7.2、10.0、13.2和15.6℃.3月下旬至4月下旬各旬平均气温的高值区普遍位于天山北坡东部棉花主产区的乌苏市、沙湾县和玛纳斯县站点周围,而低值区基本在东部的乌鲁木齐市附近.≥12℃初日的空间分布具有地区差异性,研究期间,初日日序较早的区域由精河县向西扩展到棉花主产区玛纳斯县周围,而日序较晚的区域从乌鲁木齐市以南的大部区域缩小至乌鲁木齐市周围.随着突变年后≥12℃初日逐年提前,大部县市棉花适宜播期在4月22—28日,采用地膜播种可使适宜播期提前至4月15—21日.
Based on the meteorological data of 11 representative stations in the cotton belt of the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains from 1971 to 2010, the average temperature and the average temperature at the end of March in each month from March to the end of April were analyzed by using the climatic tendency rate, t-test and IDW interpolation method. The results showed that during the study period, the average temperature in the middle, late and middle of March in the northern part of Tianshan economic belt was 0.8, 0.5, 0.1 and 0.5 ℃ (10 The trend of a) -1 tended to increase, but the initial trend of ≥12 ℃ showed a tendency of -0.5 d · (10 a) -1, and all meteorological elements were mutated in the 1990s. In late March and April, the average temperature in the middle, late and late ten days increased by 2.5, 1.9, 1.1 and 1.5 ℃ respectively, reaching 7.2, 10.0, 13.2 and 15.6 ℃ respectively. It is generally located around the stations of Wusu, Shawan and Manas County in the eastern cotton main producing area on the northern slope of Tianshan Mountains, while the low value areas are basically near the east of Urumqi City. The spatial distribution of the first days with ≥12 ℃ has regional differences, During the study period, the area with an earlier beginning of the day was extended westward from Jinghe County to Ma, the main cotton producing area The area around Naas County and later in sequence narrowed from most of the area south of Urumqi to the area around Urumqi.With the beginning of the year ≥12 ℃ after the mutation year, the appropriate sowing date of cotton in most counties and cities was in April 22-28, the use of plastic film sowing can make the appropriate sowing date to April 15-21.