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企业进入出口市场需要支付一定的进入成本,而这些进入成本往往是沉没的。沉没成本的存在使企业出口决策不会对外生波动作出及时反应,最终导致出口滞后。本文演示了沉没成本导致出口滞后的内在机理,并以中美双边贸易为例,采用协整检验以及自回归分布滞后模型进行了实证检验。检验结果显示,我国出口滞后是存在的,且沉没成本对出口滞后的影响是显著的。本文的研究,希望能为分析我国出口持续高增长问题提供一个新的视角。
Enterprises entering the export market need to pay a certain entry cost, and these entry costs are often sunk. The existence of sunk costs makes the export decision-making of enterprises will not respond to external fluctuations in a timely manner, eventually leading to export lags. This paper demonstrates the inherent mechanism of sunk costs leading to export lag. Taking the bilateral trade between China and the United States as an example, this paper conducts an empirical test using cointegration test and autoregressive distribution lag model. Test results show that there is an export lag in China, and the impact of sunk cost on export lag is significant. The research in this article hopes to provide a new perspective for analyzing the problem of sustained high growth of Chinese exports.