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无论是作为我国步入重化工业阶段后发展的战略重点,还是此次产业整治的首要对象,钢铁业都被置于各产业部门的风口浪尖,尤其是调控之初决策层最不愿看到的“大起大落”现象,也非常不幸地在钢铁价格近期的连续暴跌中率先反映出来,钢铁行业包括股市中的钢铁类股票正在经受“高温淬火”的冶炼。从“鼓励——打压——安抚”,钢铁行业在此轮经济波动中已然成为各行业的“调控先行指标”。那么,钢铁价格能否安稳“着陆”,并通过总量控制和结构调整走上一条可持续发展的道路,一定程度上预示着中国经济“软着陆”能否如愿以偿。国泰君安研究所的郑东分析师和国信证券王禹博士,均因2003钢铁上市公司盈利预测准确率排名而入选本刊与今日投资财经咨询公司评选的《盈利预测最准确分析师》,值此之际我们与钢铁行业两位“最佳分析师”就钢铁业遭受的“冰火”之遇,以及将对2004年钢铁行业盈利造成的影响进行了一番对话。
Whether it is the strategic focus of our country after it enters the stage of heavy chemical industry or the primary target of the industrial remediation, the steel industry has been placed at the cusp of various industrial sectors, especially the most unwilling to be seen by the decision-making authorities at the beginning of the control The phenomenon of “ups and downs” is also, unfortunately, the first to be reflected in the recent plummeting steel prices in the steel industry, including the steel stocks in the stock market, which are undergoing “high temperature quenching”. From “encouraging-suppressing-appeasing”, the steel industry has become the “leading indicator of regulation and control” in various industries in this round of economic fluctuations. So, can the steel price stabilize “landing” and embark on a path of sustainable development through total quantity control and structural adjustment, to a certain extent that heralds China’s soft landing? Zheng Dong Guotai Junan analyst and Guoxin Securities Dr. Wang Yu, 2003 steel listed companies are due to the accuracy of the profit forecasting rankings selected and investment in today’s financial advisory firm selected the “most accurate profit forecast analyst”, the value of In the interim we talked with the “best analysts” in the steel industry about the “ice-fire” the steel industry suffered and the implications for the profitability of the steel industry in 2004.