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[目的]定量评价因城市人口老龄化及危险因素改变对糖尿病死亡率的影响,为促进健康老龄化和制定糖尿病社区防治策略提供依据。[方法]分析上海市徐汇区1986~2005年糖尿病死亡率的变化,计算人口老龄化及危险因素改变对糖尿病死亡率变化的作用,并对危险因素归因构成比的时间趋势进行分析,拟合指数曲线。[结果]徐汇区1986~2005年65岁以上老龄人口构成增加了近1倍,糖尿病标准化死亡率女性高于男性,男女性别比1:1.65。20年间男性和女性标化死亡率均随时间呈上升趋势,男性r=0.9180,F=32.17,P=0.0013;女性r=0.8458,F=15.08,P=0.0081。20年间糖尿病粗死亡率上升了414.54%,归因于人口老龄化因素占68.49%,男性高于女性;归因于危险因素改变占31.51%。归因于老龄化效应的比例无论男性还是女性均有逐年上升趋势,相关系数男性r=0.9202,F=27.64,P=0.0033;女性r=0.9523,F=48.67,P=0.0009。[结论]人口老龄化对糖尿病死亡率影响作用大于危险因素改变的作用,男性尤其明显;与之相应的,归因于危险因素改变的影响所占构成比随时间变化有下降趋势。
[Objective] To quantitatively evaluate the impact of the aging of the urban population and the changes of risk factors on the mortality of diabetes and provide the basis for promoting healthy aging and formulating community-based prevention and control strategies for diabetes mellitus. [Methods] The changes of diabetes mortality in Xuhui District of Shanghai from 1986 to 2005 were analyzed. The effects of population aging and changes of risk factors on the changes of diabetes mortality were calculated. The time trend of the risk constituent factors was analyzed and fitted Index curve. [Results] The population aged over 65 in Xuhui District nearly doubled from 1986 to 2005. The normalized mortality rate of diabetes was higher in males than in males, and the male-to-female sex ratio was 1: 1. 65. The standardized mortality rate of males and females in both 20-year and 20- R = 0.9180, F = 32.17, P = 0.0013; Female r = 0.8458, F = 15.08, P = 0.0081. The crude mortality rate of diabetes increased by 414.54% over the 20 years, due to the aging population accounted for 68.49% , Men than women; attributable to changes in risk factors accounted for 31.51%. The proportion of men and women attributed to the aging effect increased year by year with the correlation coefficient of r = 0.9202, F = 27.64, P = 0.0033; women r = 0.9523, F = 48.67, P = 0.0009. [Conclusion] The effects of population aging on the mortality rate of diabetes are greater than the changes of risk factors, especially for males. Correspondingly, the composition ratio of the changes due to risk factors declines with time.