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目前在工程投标报价工作中还没有成熟的成本风险评估方法,文章将风险评估方法和蒙特卡罗模拟技术(MC)应用于投标报价风险评估工作中,提出了一种工程项目成本风险评价方法(CRA-MC),该方法基于风险因素直接分析成本波动情况,而不必考虑成本子项之间的波动相关性,同时较好地解决了MC模拟缺乏必要工程数据的困难。文章最后通过实际案例探讨其实用性。
At present, there is no mature cost risk assessment method in engineering bidding. The article applies the risk assessment method and Monte Carlo simulation technology (MC) to the risk assessment of bidding quotation, and proposes a method of project cost risk assessment CRA-MC). This method directly analyzes the cost fluctuation based on the risk factors without considering the volatility correlation between the cost sub-items, and solves the difficulty of MC simulation lacking necessary engineering data well. The article finally discusses its practicality through the practical case.