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我相信光纤工业的未来取决于光纤到家庭应用的发展,这已是我的一种偏见。虽然光纤到家庭是未来的事情,这有点类似于世界能源供应的未来取决于核聚变那样,但光纤到家庭并不象核聚变那么遥远,有些家庭已应用上了光纤技术,和已做的冷聚变实验一样,这种应用对光纤技术的发展有着深远的影响。也许,五年后一些家庭将用上光纤技术,但这些家庭本身对光纤工业不会有支持作用;也许会有一些家庭将确实需要音频、视频和数据综合服务;也许有不会引起争论的扩大的电话业务;也许美国要实现全面光纤化会有资金问题。
I believe that the future of the optical fiber industry depends on the development of optical fiber to home applications. This is my prejudice. Although fiber-to-the-home is something to be future-something that resembles the future of the world’s energy supply depending on nuclear fusion, fiber-to-the-home is not as distant as nuclear fusion, and some families have applied fiber technology and have done cold Like fusion experiments, this application has had a profound impact on the development of optical fiber technology. Maybe some families will be using fiber optics after five years, but the families themselves will not have a supportive role for the optical fiber industry; there may be families that will actually need integrated services for audio, video and data; perhaps there will be no controversial expansion Of the telephone business; perhaps the United States to achieve full optical fiber there will be funding problems.