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为了分析干旱区河流乌鲁木齐河径流在年内的分配及变化特征,定量辨析气温、降水对径流年内变化的驱动作用,根据流域水文气象台站的观测资料,对1993—2012年乌鲁木齐河山区流域降水、气温与径流变化的特征和趋势进行了分析,并对降水、径流的集中期和集中度进行分析,以期发现径流对降水的时滞效应;运用正积温来拟合温度与径流的关系。在此基础上,运用灰色关联度和相关分析法分析径流与气候变化的关联程度。结果表明,降水和气温直接或间接地对径流产生影响,三者各有其年内变化特征,又存在着很大的相关性。
In order to analyze the distribution and variation characteristics of runoff in the Urumqi River in arid areas during the year, quantitatively analyze the driving effect of temperature and precipitation on the annual runoff changes. According to the observation data of hydrological meteorological stations in the arid region, the precipitation, temperature And the characteristics and trends of runoff changes were analyzed. The precipitation and runoff concentration and concentration were analyzed in order to find the time lag effect of runoff on precipitation. The relationship between temperature and runoff was fitted by using positive accumulated temperature. Based on this, the correlation between runoff and climate change is analyzed by using gray relational degree and correlation analysis. The results show that precipitation and temperature have direct or indirect impacts on runoff. Each of them has its year-changing characteristics, and there is a great correlation between them.