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针对燃煤电站生产过程复杂,运行安全难以准确评价的问题,提出了基于证据理论的安全评价方法。该方法考虑了电站安全评价证据的不精确性和不完全性。在构建燃煤电站安全评价多属性决策树的基础上,提出了定量和定性证据相结合的方法,分别给出了定性和定量两种安全决策知识的获取和转化方法。建立了决策树安全评价模型,给出了证据推理算法。将该方法应用于某2×600 MW燃煤电站的安全评价,充分利用电站运行与维护数据、安全检查结果,确定了电站运行安全状态。结果表明,该方法可行有效,解决了部分证据不精确和不完全的安全评价问题,评价结果为运行与维修决策和安全整改提供依据。
In view of the complicated production process of coal-fired power stations and the difficulty in accurate evaluation of operational safety, a safety assessment method based on evidence theory is proposed. The method takes into account the inaccuracy and incompleteness of the evidence of plant safety assessment. Based on the construction of multi-attribute decision tree for safety evaluation of coal-fired power stations, a method combining quantitative and qualitative evidence is proposed, and two methods of obtaining and transforming qualitative and quantitative security decision-making knowledge are given respectively. The decision tree security evaluation model is established and the evidence reasoning algorithm is given. This method is applied to the safety assessment of a 2 × 600MW coal-fired power plant. The data of operation and maintenance of the power plant and the results of safety inspection are fully utilized, and the safety status of the plant is determined. The results show that this method is feasible and effective, and solves some problems of inaccurate and incomplete evidence of safety evaluation. Evaluation results provide the basis for operation and maintenance decision-making and safety rectification.