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新古典经济学认为,财政支出的扩张会挤占私人资源,产生负财富效应,进而抑制居民消费。基于微观主体的行为变化,本文认为财政扩张还可以通过提高居民消费的边际效用,形成消费倾斜效应,增加居民消费。通过构建动态随机一般均衡模型,本文分析了这两种效应的传递路径,并利用中国的数据进行模拟分析,发现:(1)消费者的跨期替代弹性越小,财政扩张的消费倾斜效应将越大;(2)中国政府支出在短期内会引起居民消费的上涨,长期中则会挤出居民消费。出现这种情况的部分原因是:近年来我国居民消费的跨期替代弹性大大增加,财政扩张的消费倾斜效应下降迅速。
Neoclassical economics believes that the expansion of fiscal expenditures will squeeze private resources, resulting in a negative wealth effect, thereby curbing the consumption of residents. Based on the change of behavior of the microcosmic subject, this paper argues that the fiscal expansion can also increase the resident consumption by increasing the marginal utility of household consumption and forming the consumption-tilting effect. By constructing a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, this paper analyzes the transmission path of these two effects and uses the data of China to do the simulation analysis. It is found that: (1) consumers’ intertemporal substitution elasticity is smaller and the effect of fiscal expansion (2) Chinese government spending will cause a rise in household consumption in the short term, while consumer spending will be squeezed in the long run. Part of the reason for such a situation is that the intertemporal substitution elasticity of residents’ consumption in our country has greatly increased in recent years, and the effect of fiscal expansion has been declining rapidly.