论文部分内容阅读
在国际紧急灾害数据库的支持下,得到了中国在1980-2008年间发生的年洪水灾害发生次数、年单次洪水灾害经济损失极大值和年洪水灾害经济总损失3个统计指标;根据复合极值理论,利用泊松-对数正态复合极值模型对洪水灾害经济损失进行了分析。研究结果表明:(1)洪水灾害经济损失遵从对数正态分布;(2)单次极值经济损失与年经济总损失具有高度相关性;(3)复合极值方法可有效地用于洪水极值重现期的重建;(4)与传统的经验频率计算方法相比,该方法能克服因资料年限短、数据不足而造成的洪灾重现周期估算困难。
With the support of the International Emergency Disaster Database, we obtained three statistical indicators of the number of annual flood disasters, the maximum annual economic losses of flood disasters and the total economic losses of flood disasters in 1980-2008. According to the statistics of composite pole Value theory, the Poisson-lognormal composite extreme value model is used to analyze the economic losses caused by flood disasters. The results show that: (1) the economic loss of flood disaster follows the lognormal distribution; (2) the single extreme economic loss has a high correlation with the total annual economic loss; (3) The composite extreme value method can be effectively used in flood (4) Compared with the traditional empirical frequency calculation method, this method can overcome the difficulty of estimating the flood recurrence period due to the short data life and insufficient data.