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在论述用死亡度来描述强震破坏合理性的基础上，利用与目前震害资料现状相一致的概率模型和相关资料，计算得到了中国各分区在未来不同时间发生不同死亡度的概率曲线；并以唐山地震震害得到的死亡度衰减关系，由现行的地震危险性分析模型，计算了华北北部（114°－117°E，39°－41°N）未来10年和50年超越概率10％死亡度的空间分布。
On the basis of describing the rationality of the damage caused by strong earthquakes by using the degree of death, the probability curves of different degrees of death in different parts of China in different periods in the future are calculated by using the probabilistic model consistent with the present situation of earthquake damage data and relevant data. Based on the current seismic risk analysis model, the probability of surpassing 10 in the next 10 years and 50 years in North China (114 ° -117 ° E, 39 ° -41 ° N) Spatial distribution of% mortality.