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In the 2011 International Financial Fo- rum held on November 9, Andrew L.T. Sheng, former chairman of Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission, Li Changyong, chief economist of the Asian Development Bank and Li Daokui, director of China and World Economy Research Center of Tsinghua University said unanimously that RMB
would become a world currency and become the reserve currency for the central banks of some countries as the influence of China in international trade grows bigger, though it cannot shake the situation that the U.S. dollar takes the dominant place right now.
“Today’s world currency system is still the single U.S. dollar-based system. This generates a problem,” said Andrew L. T. Sheng. The U.S.A is an integral participator in the global trade. Using the U.S. dollar as the international currency is kind of selfish and irresponsible. As an international currency, the U.S. dollar is not only happy to gain extra advantages in the international trade but also unwilling to shoulder its responsibility. “Even a sub-debt crisis can bring the global economy into trouble.” In his opinion, the duties of international currency should be taken by three or four currencies. Euro and RMB are available candidates.
Then, Li Daokui mentioned that the internationalization of RMB is a very tough and challenging process.”
Li Daokui’s words were supported by the evidence he listed afterwards: most of the countries have encountered great trouble when their currencies walked on the way of internationalization. “No matter pound, German mark or Japanese yen, which once tried to be internationalized, all met trouble during the process of internationalization. Therefore, it is necessary for us to make it clear that the internationalization of RMB will not be an easy and comfortable travel,” said Li Daokui. In his opinion, the internationalization of RMB should be closely related with the reform to international monetary sys- tem as well as the international financial reform. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) put forward the request of capital expansion because the current amount of capital is not enough to deal with the challenges of financial crisis and debt crisis in different countries. The process of capital expansion is actually a process of RMB internationalization.
Li Daokui also expressed his own opinions about whether China should come out and rescue Europe from current sovereign debt crisis. He admitted that he had no normal answers to this question. But he believed that saving Europe was not a necessary step for the RMB to be internationalized. Instead, another indispensable element of the RMB internationalization is the reform to China’s own financial reform.
“The commercial banks should be more stable in their operation during the internationalization of RMB. If not, the investors might think that the Chinese commercial banks can not maintain a stable position in a short term and thus move their capital out of China. All in all, the internationalization of RMB should provide better services for entity economy.
These words soon got the approval from other experts. Wang Tao, chief economist of UBS Securities China was the first to second the motion.
“What’s the ultimate goal for RMB internationalization? We should make use of this process to improve the economic development level and people’s living quality of China,” she said. Whether the RMB can become international finally depends on the market. The internationalization of RMB should be related with the economic power of the country and the increasing proportion of international trade. Then, a large number of investors are needed to create the fluidity. Thirdly, the ability of RMB to maintain and increase its value should be enhanced and the exchange rate fluctuation system should become more transparent. “If RMB can meet these standards, it will become the world’s currency within ten years.”