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基于北京市的数据,应用协整理论、VAR模型,Eviews6.0软件对北京市小汽车交通与城市经济发展,公共交通与政府公共交通投资之间的关系进行协整分析。分析表明小汽车交通与城市经济发展之间确实存在长期稳定均衡的协整关系,城市经济发展是小汽车交通发展的Granger原因;以新的视角揭示出政府公共交通投资的增长并没有带来公共交通的理想发展,公共交通却是政府公共交通投资的Granger原因。一系列定量分析结果为在城市经济不断发展条件下,优化小汽车交通管理和机动化出行结构,改善交通拥堵,改善政府交通投资理念及策略,有效实施公交优先发展战略等提供了新的思路和理论依据。
Based on the data of Beijing, cointegration analysis was carried out based on the cointegration theory, VAR model and Eviews6.0 software on the relationship between Beijing's automobile traffic and urban economic development, public transport and government public transport investment. The analysis shows that there is indeed a long-term, stable and balanced cointegration relationship between car traffic and urban economic development. Urban economic development is the Granger cause of car traffic development. From a new perspective, it is revealed that the growth of government public transport investment does not bring about public The ideal development of transportation, public transport is Granger reason of government public transport investment. A series of quantitative analysis results provide new ideas and strategies for optimizing bus traffic management and mobility structure, improving traffic congestion, improving government traffic investment concepts and strategies, and effectively implementing bus priority development strategies under the conditions of continuous urban economic development. Theoretical basis.