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本文在传统的引力模型基础上引入社会网络变量,利用中国1980～2005年与26个国家进出口贸易数据,重点考察华侨社会网络的贸易效应。与先前文献不同,本文的实证考虑了社会网络效应的国别差异,引入制度变量和FDI来加以控制,并以固定效应来获取。结果显示,以华侨移民为基础的社会网络对我国贸易促进作用显著,但社会网络效应的有效性随着时间而减弱。结论认为,世界各国经济自由化和一体化加速以及制度创新与发展,减弱了我国对外贸易的社会网络依赖性;同时在华FDI的跨国企业分支网络也部分替代了华侨社会网络对贸易的促进作用。
Based on the traditional gravitation model, this paper introduces the social network variables and makes use of the data of China’s import and export from 1980 to 2005 and 26 countries, focusing on the trade effects of overseas Chinese social networks. Different from the previous literature, this paper empirically considers the country differences in social network effects, introduces institutional variables and FDI to control them, and obtains them with fixed effects. The results show that the social network based on overseas immigrants has a significant effect on the promotion of China’s trade, but the effectiveness of social network effects has weakened over time. The conclusion is that the accelerated liberalization and integration of various countries in the world, as well as the system innovation and development, have weakened the social network dependence of China’s foreign trade; meanwhile, the branch networks of multinational enterprises in China have also partially replaced the promotion role of overseas Chinese social networks in trade .