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在今后的三年中,美国的贸易赤字将会消除。这不是虔诚的希望,也不是经济稳定的一个根本因素。它的实现只是因为全球性的财政体系将无法再容忍任何细小的事情。唯一的问题是,它将如何实现,弥补漏洞对亚洲(特别是亚洲新兴工业化国家)将有何影响。仅仅消除赤字是不够的。当美国的贸易趋于平衡时,它积累的债务将需要250多亿美元来支付。到1991年底,债务很可能超过5000亿美元。由于出口只能弥补商品进口的60%,在今后五年内,出口价格必须增长一倍,或进口减少一半,这样才能在1992年使经常项目达到平衡。
In the next three years, the U.S. trade deficit will be eliminated. This is not a pious hope nor a fundamental factor in economic stability. Its realization is simply because the global financial system will no longer tolerate any small thing. The only question is how will it be done to make up for the impact that the loopholes will have on Asia, especially in Asia’s newly industrialized countries. It is not enough to eliminate the deficit alone. When U.S. trade tends to balance, its accumulated debt will require more than $ 25 billion to pay. By the end of 1991, the debt is likely to exceed 500 billion U.S. dollars. Since exports can only make up for 60% of the imports of goods, the export price must double or reduce imports by half in the next five years in order to bring the current account to a balance in 1992.