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[目的]了解2002~2006年全国甲乙类法定报告传染病的发病率情况,应用灰色关联分析探讨影响总发病率的主要传染病病种。[方法]利用中华人民共和国卫生部公布的历年中国卫生统计提要中关于法定报告传染病的数据,采用灰色关联分析计算关联度,并按关联度进行排序。[结果]在2002~2006年中,病毒性肝炎发病率曲线与甲乙类法定传染病总发病率曲线的发展态势最接近,淋病、麻疹、疟疾、猩红热和痢疾这些传染病发病率曲线与总发病率曲线的发展态势较接近。[结论]对与总发病率关联度较大的病种进行系统管理,在实际工作中除了以发病率等指标作为决策依据外,建议引入灰色关联度分析进行系统分析、科学决策。
[Objective] To understand the incidence of statutory reported communicable diseases of Class A and B in China from 2002 to 2006, and to explore the main infectious diseases that affected the total incidence by gray relational analysis. [Methods] Based on the data of statutory reporting of infectious diseases in China’s health statistics published by the Ministry of Health of the People’s Republic of China over the years, the incidence of statutory reporting of infectious diseases was calculated using the gray incidence analysis and the correlations were ranked. [Results] From 2002 to 2006, the curve of incidence of viral hepatitis was closest to the trend of the total incidence of notifiable type A and B infectious disease. The incidence curves of infectious diseases such as gonorrhea, measles, malaria, scarlet fever and dysentery were the same with the overall incidence Rate curve of the development trend is closer. [Conclusion] To systematically manage the diseases which have a high correlation with the total morbidity, in addition to using morbidity and other indicators as the basis for decision-making, it is suggested to introduce the gray relational analysis for systematic analysis and scientific decision-making.