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本文根据从水稻播种期里齐穗期之间的气候因子与齐穗期出现早晚的相关关系，运用主成分分析法来预测水稻齐穗期．据分析，抽穗期与≥１０℃活动积温、有效积温、总辐射量、降水量和日照时数有关，其中与温度条件影响最大，ｒ＝－０．８１９．用主成分为预报因子建立的预报方程为：Ｎ＝６６．４３４６－０．０００８５７Ｚ；其预报效果较好．
In this paper, principal component analysis (PCA) is used to predict the heading date of rice based on the correlation between the climatic factors of heading date and the heading date of heading date in rice sowing period. According to analysis, the heading date is related to ≥10 ℃ active accumulated temperature, effective accumulated temperature, total amount of radiation, precipitation and sunshine hours, of which the temperature is the most important, r = -0.819. The forecasting equation established by using the principal component for the forecasting factor is: N = 66.4346-0.000857Z; its forecasting effect is better.