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一、新西兰的地震危险性新西兰历史上发生的最大地震为1855年怀拉拉帕西部地震,该地震使惠灵顿地区没能留下一座完整的砖砌建筑物。尽管惠灵顿的易损性常被新闻界过分夸大,但大多数惠灵顿人仍感到了地震的威胁。从长远的观点看,惠灵顿发生大地震的可能性并不比新西兰中部任何地区高,也不比北岛东岸地区高多少,但由于惠灵顿地区人口稠密,因此影响较大。二、新西兰的地震预报研究最近的研究(Smith,1981,1986)表明,在新西兰和加利福尼亚的若干大地震前,存在
THE RISK OF SEISMIC NEW ZEALAND The biggest earthquake in New Zealand’s history was the Western Wairarapa earthquake in 1855, which left the Wellington area without a complete brick structure. Although Wellington’s vulnerability has often been exaggerated by the press, most people in Wellington still feel the threat of earthquakes. In the longer term, the probability of a major earthquake in Wellington will not be higher than in any part of central New Zealand or higher than the east coast of the island, but the Wellington area is more heavily populated. Second, New Zealand’s earthquake prediction studies Recent studies (Smith, 1981, 1986) show that before several large earthquakes in New Zealand and California existed