论文部分内容阅读
将自1900年以来钨精矿的现价换算成不变价格后分解为趋势、周期、冲击和随机等部分。研究发现,由趋势和周期构成的核心价格呈现规律,即相邻低谷期和高台期组成一个周期,相邻两周期组成一个长周期。低谷期伴随快速上涨而转入高台期,伴随深度下跌而重回低谷期。一个高台期内与重大事件相伴发生三次大幅向上冲击。价格波动趋于节拍延长、波幅加大。预测钨价将至少高挺17年,建议在此期间少产、惜售以维持高价出口。
Converting the current prices of tungsten concentrates to constant prices since 1900 is broken down into trends, cycles, shocks and stochastic. The study found that the core prices formed by trends and cycles are regular, that is, the adjacent troughs and highs constitute one cycle, and the adjacent two cycles form a long cycle. The trough period is accompanied by a rapid rise and into a high-profile period, returning to the trough as the depth plunges. During a high-profile period, there were three major and upward shocks accompanied by major incidents. Price fluctuations tend to extend the beats, volatility increased. Tungsten prices are expected to remain high for at least 17 years and it is suggested to slash production and reluctant sellers in order to maintain high export prices.