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通过对汶川8.0级地震的类型和破裂特征分析,讨论了龙门山构造带地震活动与甘肃省地震活动的关系。回顾了对汶川地震序列的动态跟踪过程以及余震活动在甘肃省的震情判定过程。认为地震预报应从地震的孕育、发展和发生过程中获得更多的物理信息,改变以往以经验、统计预报为主的模式,向以物理预报为主的预报模式迈进。
Based on the analysis of the type and rupture characteristics of the Wenchuan 8.0 earthquake, the relationship between the seismic activity of the Longmen Shan tectonic belt and the seismic activity in Gansu Province is discussed. The dynamic tracking process of Wenchuan earthquake sequence and the process of aftershock activity in Gansu Province are reviewed. It is believed that earthquake prediction should obtain more physical information from the process of gestation, development and occurrence of earthquakes, and change the pattern of experience and statistical forecast in the past and move forward to forecasting mode based on physical forecast.