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在理清自然灾害风险系统构成的基础上,总结其风险评估的三种方法:基于历史数据、指标体系和情景模拟。文章采用由果及因的演绎思路,据历史灾情参考全球尺度灾害风险评估国际计划做脆弱性的评估,探讨水灾脆弱性的区域分异规律,并分析其社会经济因素。由于历史数据局限,引入信息扩散的模糊数学方法,对沿海各省区的受灾率进行风险评估,并将区域风险与脆弱性的次序进行对比,表明:脆弱性是风险的重要组分,减少脆弱性可有效降低风险,但探寻灾害发生规律、降低人类社会的暴露性,也是减少灾害风险的必要环节。
On the basis of sorting out the composition of natural disaster risk system, this paper summarizes three methods of risk assessment: based on historical data, index system and scenario simulation. Based on historical disaster, this article makes an assessment of vulnerability based on historical disaster with reference to the global scale disaster risk assessment international plan, discusses the regional differentiation law of flood vulnerability and analyzes its socio-economic factors. Due to the limitations of historical data, a fuzzy mathematics method of information diffusion is introduced to evaluate the risk of the disaster in the coastal provinces and provinces. The comparison of regional risk and vulnerability order shows that: Vulnerability is an important component of risk and reduces vulnerability Which can effectively reduce the risk. However, exploring the law of disaster and reducing the exposure of human society are also necessary steps to reduce the risk of disasters.