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2015年即将到来的中国秋冬种小麦既有不利因素,也有有利因素。不利因素主要包括2015年夏收小麦效益较上年明显下降、秋冬种期间小麦市场价格偏弱、国内农业结构调整等;有利因素主要包括在“谷物基本自给、口粮绝对安全”的国家新型粮食安全战略框架下,2016年小麦最低收购价政策继续执行的可能性大,小麦生产机械化程度高等。综合考虑,预计2015年秋冬种主产区小麦种植面积将保持基本稳定,非主产区面积仍有可能下降。
The coming autumn and winter wheat in China in 2015 has both unfavorable factors and favorable factors. The unfavorable factors include the significant decrease in the efficiency of wheat in the summer of 2015 as compared with the previous year, the weakening of the market price of wheat in autumn and winter and the adjustment of the domestic agricultural structure. The favorable factors mainly include the new grain in the country where the basic self-sufficiency of grain and the absolute safety of rations Under the safety strategy framework, the possibility of continuing the implementation of the minimum purchase price policy for wheat in 2016 is high and the production of wheat is more mechanized. Taken together, it is estimated that the planting area of wheat in the main producing areas will maintain a stable level in autumn and winter of 2015, and the area of non-main producing areas is still likely to decline.