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目的讨论集中度和圆形分布法在北京市房山区麻疹发病季节聚集特征和变化趋势分析中的应用,为科学防控麻疹提供依据。方法综合运用集中度和圆形分布法对北京市房山区2005—2015年麻疹发病情况进行变化趋势分析。结果 2005—2015年共报告麻疹病例659例,不同年份各季节分布有明显的季节性,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。发病高峰日是4月25日,流行期为2月25日—6月24日。病例数与风速、日照呈正相关,与流行期吻合。结论北京市房山区麻疹发病有较强的季节性,2—6月为流行高峰,集中度、圆形分布可用于麻疹季节流行特征描述,能定量反映疾病流行高峰和流行期。
Objective To discuss the application of concentration and circular distribution in the gathering characteristics and changing trend of measles in Fangshan District, Beijing in order to provide scientific basis for prevention and control of measles. Methods The concentration and circular distribution methods were used to analyze the changing trend of measles in Fangshan District of Beijing from 2005 to 2015. Results A total of 659 cases of measles were reported from 2005 to 2015. There was a clear seasonal distribution in different seasons, with significant difference (P <0.05). The peak incidence day is April 25, the popular period is from February 25 to June 24. The number of cases was positively correlated with wind speed and sunshine and coincided with the prevalence. Conclusion The incidence of measles in Fangshan District, Beijing is quite seasonal. The peak is from February to June. The concentration and circular distribution can be used to describe the characteristics of measles seasonal epidemics, which can quantitatively reflect the epidemic peak and epidemic period.