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目的探索趋势面分析法描述广西细菌性痢疾地理分布的可行性。方法采用趋势面分析方法,分别构建2003～2007年广西89市县和14地市细菌性痢疾发病率地理分布的趋势面方程,并绘制等值线图。结果地市级趋势面分析效果较好,趋势面方程中地理位置能够解释菌痢发病率变异的95.59%,等值线图所显示的分布特征与菌痢发病率的实际分布相吻合,而市县级趋势面分析效果则不理想。结论利用趋势面分析揭示广西菌痢发病率地区分布的差异与趋势性是可行的,为进一步分析广西细菌性痢疾地理分布的变迁与深入探讨流行因素奠定了基础,也为广西细菌性痢疾的干预提供了依据。
Objective To explore the feasibility of using trend surface analysis to describe the geographical distribution of bacterial dysentery in Guangxi. Methods The trend surface analysis method was used to construct the trend surface equation of geographic distribution of bacterial dysentery incidence in 89 counties and 14 prefectures in Guangxi from 2003 to 2007, and to draw the contour map. Results The municipal-level trend surface analysis showed good results. Geographic location of the trend surface equation could account for 95.59% of the variation in the incidence of dysentery. The distribution characteristic displayed by the contour map was consistent with the actual distribution of dysentery incidence. County-level trend surface analysis results are not satisfactory. Conclusion It is feasible to reveal the distribution and tendency of the incidence of dysentery in Guangxi using trend surface analysis. This study laid the foundation for the further analysis of the geographical distribution of bacterial dysentery in Guangxi and further discussed the epidemiological factors, and also contributed to the intervention of Guangxi bacillary dysentery Provided the basis.